.MCAD 306000000 Z  docDocument<mcObjectI`` (d2_graph_format graphData axisFormatLLtrace2D      dim_formatCmasslengthtimecharge temperature luminosity substanceNumericalFormat@dii shpRectEmcDocumentObjectStateJ mcPageModel:????mcHeaderFooter99 ComputeEngine=BuiltInsB  SerialAnyvalH@!@H @"@H#@H$@H units_classA TextState0 TextStyle/@ ArialNormalfont_style_list> font_style?  VariablesTimes New Roman?  ConstantsTimes New Roman? TextArial? Greek VariablesSymbol? User^1Arial? User^2 Courier New? User^3System? User^4Script? User^5Roman? User^6Modern? User^7Times New Roman? SymbolsSymbol? Current Selection FontArial? Undefined Font? HeaderArial? FooterArial? Rotated Math FontTimes New RomanY TextRegion docRegion7shpBoxD#eT   CharacterMapRangeMap,@eFirst, we establish the relevant equations for benchmark calibration, based on equilibrium conditions ChrPropMap(e ParPropMap*e RangeElem-e  ParPropData+ RangeData.EmbedMap" -LinkMap e -e LinkData!@NormalArial eqRegion3@D +A</8tree1 p1Given3@DBkiX1 p1,1dq11p@11dx11d\t1p11da1c11dS 1p!1 "1@!#1d"b$1"\t%1!y&3@Dr '1 p(1,')1d(Pp*1(+1p@*,1+-1@,.1p@-/1.01@/11d0\t21p031241@351d4a61p471681d7S9171:13c;1/x<1-b=1,>1@=?1d>a@@1>y@A1=S@B1*@C1d@BS@D1p@B@E1@D@F1@@E@G1d@Fb@H1@F\t@I1@Ey@J3@D @K1 p@L1,@K@M1d@LPc@N1@L@O1p@@N@P1@O@Q1@@P@R1p@@Q@S1@R@T1@@S@U1@@T@V1d@Ub@W1@US@X1@T\t@Y1@S@Z1d@Yy@[1p@Y@\1@[@]1d@\S@^1@\1@_1@Qx@`1@P@a1@@`@b1d@ay@c1@a\t@d1p@`@e1@d@f1d@ea@g1@ec@h1@N@i1d@hS@j1p@h@k1@j@l1@@k@m1d@lb@n1@l\t@o1@ky@p3@DD@q1 p@r1,@q@s1d@r\ed@t1@r@u1@@t@v1d@ux@w1@u@x1d@wy@y1@wq@z1@t@{1d@zy@|1@zq@}3@DP(@@~1 p@1,@~@1d@\es@1@@1p@@@1@@1d@a@1@@1d@b@1@q@1@@1d@b@1@q@3@D 1@1 p@1?@@1@@@1d@Find@1p@@1 @@1 @@@1 @@@1 @@@1d@x@1@y@1@c@1@a@1@b@1@@ PageBreak5@D @( +@@D+;8d21Now we will insert data for calibration purposes:(1*1@-1@+"@- 1@-1@!@NormalArial @3@D(CTGP@1 p@1 @@1d@GDP@1@ 1374401.6@@D(CS(PThis is base period GDP(*@-@+"@- @-@!@NormalArial @3@D([lPh@1 p@1 @@1d@XFOB@1@143037.3@@D([k(hExports on an f.o.b. basis(*@-@+"@- @-@!@NormalArial @3@D(sK@1 p@1 @@1d@XCIF@1@150832.9@@D(s(Exports on a c.i.f. basis(*@-@+"@- @-@!@NormalArial @3@D(S@1 p@1 @@1d@MFOB@1@163355.2@@D((Imports on an f.o.b. basis(*@-@+"@- @-@!@NormalArial @3@D(N@1 p@1 @@1d@MCIF@1@169955.6@@D((Imports on a c.i.f basis(*@-@+"@- @-@!@NormalArial @3@D(5@1 p@1 @@1d@\t@1p@@1@@1t@1@1@ .05176656@@D(("The base tariff on exports, plus 1("*"@-"@+"@- "@-"@!@NormalArial @3@D(V9@1 p@1 @@1d@\ed@1K@@1@10@@D((Demand elasticity for exports(*@-@+"@- @-@!@NormalArial @3@D(R8@1 p@1 @@1d@\es@1@3.5@@D((Supply elasticity for exports(*@-@+"@- @-@!@NormalArial @3@D(j$6 @1 pA1 @A1dASA1pAA1AA1tA1A1A.1A@D(Y3( 1 1 @bAn index of competition, ranging from 1 (competition) to 2 (monopoloy). For Cournot, this is 1/n.(b*bA-bA+"A - bA -bA !@NormalArial A @DS;c`R335Next we need to calibrate base prices and quantities:(5*5A -5A+"A- 5A-5A!@NormalArial A3@D({M<A1 pA1 AA1dAPcA1A1A@D({(JbbConsumer prices(*A-A+"A- A-A!@NormalArial A3@D(aNA1 pA1 AA 1@AA!1dA PsA"1pA A#1A"\tA$1AA%1tA$1A&1A$\tA'@D({(BSSShipper prices(*A(-A)+"A*- A+-A,!@NormalArial A-3@D(OA.1 pA/1 A.A01@A/A11dA0PpA21pA0A31A2\tA41A/A51dA4XFOBA61A4A71@A6A81dA7PsA91pA7A:1A9\tA;1pA6A<1A;A=1dA<XCIFA>1pA<A?1A>A@1dA?MCIFAA1A?MFOBAB@D((2]]Producer Prices(*AC-AD+"AE- AF-AG!@NormalArial AH3@D(HAI1 pAJ1 AIAK1@AJAL1dAKqAM1pAKAN1AM\tAO1AJAP1dAO\tAQ1pAOAR1AQAS1dARXCIFAT1pARAU1ATAV1dAUMCIFAW1AUMFOBAX@D((*ZZBase quantities(*AY-AZ+"A[- A\-A]!@NormalArial A^@D+(2#Now we insert calibration equations(#*#A_-#A`+"Aa- #Ab-#Ac!@NormalArial Ad3@D(:a=PAe1 pAf1 AeAg1dAfx.cAh15AfAi1dAhPcAj1AhAk1p@AjAl1AkAm1dAl\edAn1Al1Ao1Aj\edAp3@D;1aPAq1 pAr1 AqAs1@ArAt1dAsy.cAu1pAsAv1Au\tAw1ArAx1dAwPcAy1pAwAz1AyA{1dAz\edA|1AzA}1dA|qA~1pA|A1A~\tA@DC,cP $these are import demand coefficients($*$A-$A+"A- $A-$A!@NormalArial A3@D=A1 pA1 AA1@AA1dAc.cA1pAA1 AA1dASA1A\tA1AA1K@AA1pAA1AA1@AA1@AA1@AA1@AA1@AA1@AA1K@AA1APcA1A\edA1A\esA1AA1dAPcA1A\esA1AA1@AA1@AA1@AA1dAPpA1pAA1A\tA1A\tA1A\edA1A\esA1AA1@AA1@AA1dAPpA1pAA1A\tA1A\tA1A\edA1AA1@AA1@AA1@AA1dAPpA1pAA1A\tA1ASA1A\tA1A\edA1AA1@AA1dASA1APcA1A\esA1pAA1AA1dA\edA1pAA1AA1dA\esA1A\tA@D:. .  shipper costs( * A- A+"A-  A- A!@NormalArial A3@D0A1 pA1 AA1@AA1dAa.cA1pAA1A\tA1AA1@AA1dAPpA1pAA1A\tA1AA1p@AA1AA1dA\esA1A1A1A\esA3@DA1 pA1 AA1@AA1dAb.cA1pAA1A\tA1AA1@AA1dAPpA1pAA1A\tA1pAA1AA1dA\esA1AA1dAqA1pAA1A\tA@D$ $these are export supply coefficients($*$A-$A+"A- $A-$A!@NormalArial A3@D_ .,A1 pA1AA1@AA1dAPpA1pAA1A\tB1AB1+@BSerial_DisplayNodeFB1B _n_u_l_l_B@D;]KH"UUdisplay values:(*B-B+"B- B-B!@NormalArial B 3@D[AqhB 1 pB 1B B 1dB x.cB 1B B1+@B @FB1B  _n_u_l_l_B3@DHTqphB1 pB1BB1@BB1dBy.cB1pBB1B\tB1BB1+@B@FB1B _n_u_l_l_B3@DZ%qhB1 pB1BB1@BB1dBc.cB1pBB 1 BB!1dB SB"1B \tB#1BB$1+@B#@FB%1B# _n_u_l_l_B&3@D(ZqOh B'1 pB(1B'B)1@B(B*1dB)a.cB+1pB)B,1B+\tB-1B(B.1+@B-@FB/1B- _n_u_l_l_B03@DTqh B11 pB21B1B31@B2B41dB3b.cB51pB3B61B5\tB71B2B81+@B7@FB91B7 _n_u_l_l_B:5@D@B;@DsRkk=Set up for some point estimates on counterfactual experiments(=*=B<-=B=+"B>- =B?-=B@!@NormalArial BA@Da$This is the amount of the tariff cut($*$BB-$BC+"BD- $BE-$BF!@NormalArial BG3@D= EBH1 pBI1 BHBJ1dBIcutBK1BI100BL3@DGDBM1 pBN1 BMBO1@BNBP1dBO\t.eBQ1pBOBR1 BQBS1dBR\tBT1BRcutBU1BNBV1dBU1BW1BUBX1p@BWBY1BXBZ1dBY\tB[1BY1B\1BWB]1p@B\B^1B]B_1tB^100B`1B^cutBa1B\100Bb3@DjNBc1 pBd1BcBe1@BdBf1dBe\t.eBg1pBeBh1 BgBi1dBh\tBj1BhcutBk1BdBl1+@Bk@FBm1Bk _n_u_l_l_Bn3@D%,VR@CBo1 pBp1 BoBq1@BpBr1dBqq1Bs1pBqBt1 BsBu1 @BtBv1dBu\tBw1BucutBx1BtSBy1BpBz1p@ByB{1BzB|1dB{x.cB}1B{B~1@B}B1dB~\t.eB1pB~B1 BB1dB\tB1BcutB1pB}B1BB1@BB1dBa.cB1pBB1B\tB1BB1dBc.cB1pBB1 BB1dBSB1B\tB1ByB1dBSB1pBB1BB1@BB1dBb.cB1pBB1B\tB1BB1dBy.cB1pBB1B\tB3@DmRBB1 pB1 BB1@BB1dBp1B1pBB1 BB1 @BB1dB\tB1BcutB1BSB1pBB1BB1@BB1@BB1p@BB1BB1@BB1@BB1dB\t.eB1pBB1 BB1dB\tB1BcutB1pBB1BB1@BB1@BB1dBa.cB1pBB1B\tB1pBB1BB1dBSB1B1B1BB1dBc.cB1pBB1 BB1dBSB1B\tB1Bx.cB1BB1dBb.cB1pBB1B\tB1BB1@BB1@BB1dBa.cB1pBB1B\tB1BB1dBy.cB1pBB1B\tB1BSB1BB1dBSB1pBB1BB1@BB1@BB1dBb.cB1pBB1B\tB1BB1dB\t.eB1pBB1 BB1dB\tB1BcutB1BB1dBy.cB1pBB1B\tB3@DFAB1 pB1BB1@BB1dBp1B1pBB1 BB1 @BB1dB\tB1B0B1BSB1BB1+@B@FB1B _n_u_l_l_6JB3@DsB1 pB1BB1@BB1dBq1B1pBB1 BB1 @BB1dB\tB1B100C1BSC1BC1+@C@FC1C _n_u_l_l_6JC3@DpC1 pC1CC1@CC1dCp1C 1pCC 1 C C 1 @C C 1dC \tC 1C 100C1C SC1CC1+@C@FC1C _n_u_l_l_6JC3@DLM@C1 pC1 CC1@CC1dCRC1pCC1 CC1 @CC1dC\tC1CcutC1CSC1pCC1CC1@CC 1@CC!1p@C C"1C!C#1@C"C$1dC#q1C%1pC#C&1 C%C'1 @C&C(1dC'\tC)1C'cutC*1C&SC+1C"C,1dC+qC-1pC+C.1C-\tC/1pC C01pC/C11C0C21@C1C31dC2p1C41pC2C51 C4C61 @C5C71dC6\tC81C6cutC91C5SC:1C1C;1dC:p1C<1pC:C=1 C1 @C=C?1dC>\tC@1C>0CA1C=SCB1C.5CC1CCD1p@CCCE1CDCF1@CECG1dCFp1CH1pCFCI1 CHCJ1 @CICK1dCJ\tCL1CJcutCM1CISCN1CECO1dCNp1CP1pCNCQ1 CPCR1 @CQCS1dCR\tCT1CR0CU1CQSCV1CCCW1dCVqCX1pCVCY1CX\tCZ3@D k0T ?C[1 pC\1 C[C]1@C\C^1dC]EVC_1pC]C`1 C_Ca1 @C`Cb1dCa\tCc1CacutCd1C`SCe1C\Cf1@CeCg1p@CfCh1CgCi1@ChCj1@CiCk1p@CjCl1CkCm1@ClCn1dCmq1Co1pCmCp1 CoCq1 @CpCr1dCq\tCs1CqcutCt1CpSCu1ClCv1dCuqCw1pCuCx1Cw\tCy1pCjCz1pCyC{1CzC|1@C{C}1dC|p1C~1pC|C1 C~C1 @CC1dC\tC1CcutC1CSC1C{C1dCp1C1pCC1 CC1 @CC1dC\tC1C0C1CSC1Ci.5C1ChC1p@CC1CC1@CC1dCp1C1pCC1 CC1 @CC1dC\tC1CcutC1CSC1CC1dCp1C1pCC1 CC1 @CC1dC\tC1C0C1CSC1CC1dCqC1pCC1C\tC1Cf100C1CeGDPC3@DBTTP>C1 pC1CC1@CC1dCEVC1pCC1 CC1 @CC1dC\tC1C100C1CSC1CC1+@C@FC1C _n_u_l_l_6JC@DC#SP3##2Revenue (equivalent variation) as a percent of GDP(2*2C-2C+"C- 2C-2C!@NormalArial C3@DtM=C1 pC1CC1@CC1dCRC1pCC1 CC1 @CC1dC\tC1C100C1CSC1CC1+@C@FC1C _n_u_l_l_6JC@D{d2dd@ARevenue effect of a 100% tariff cut (balance ot trade definition)(A*AC-AC+"C- AC-AC!@NormalArial C5@D@GC@DMb@BNow we plot a relationship between EV (for 100% tariff cuts) and S(B*BC-BC+"C- BC-BC!@NormalArial C3@DRJC1 pC1 CC1dCSC1CC1 @CC1tC1C1C1.01C1C2C3@D_ UC1 pC1 CC1dCcutC1CC1 @CC1tC0C1C10C1C100C@D 4+V  @For a 100% cut in tariffs on exports, what is the relationship between EV and the degree of competition in the shipping sector?(*C-C+"C- C-C!@NormalArial C3@D/p 0QC1 pC1CC1@CC1@CC1@CC1fC 1.163968C1C 0.598825C1CC1dC _n_u_l_l_C1C _n_u_l_l_C1CC1dCEVC1pCC1 CC1 @CC1dC\tC1C100C1CSD1CD1@DD1@DD1fD2D1D1D1DD1dD _n_u_l_l_D1D _n_u_l_l_D1DSD >2 LL     D 5@D @ WD @D   Z@CNow we want a more general mapping of tariff cuts and welfare gains(C*CD -CD +"D- CD-CD!@NormalArial D3@D; ?L H GD1 pD1 DD1dDiD1DD1tD0D1D100D3@DX; L bH HD1 pD1 DD1dDjD1DD1tD0D1D15D3@D[ &p JD 1 pD!1 D D"1@D!D#1dD"MD$1 D"D%1dD$iD&1D$jD'1D!D(1dD'EVD)1pD'D*1 D)D+1 @D*D,1dD+\tD-1D+iD.1D*D/1tD.1D01D.D11dD0jD21D015D33@Dc y p \D41 pD51D4D61@D5D71dD6MD81 D6D91tD8100D:1D81D;1D5D<1+@D;@FD=1D; _n_u_l_l_D>@Dp  p [00@For a particular degree of competition (s varies between 0, competition, and 15, monopoly), what is the effect of a tariff concession by the importers of between 0 and 100 percent, as a percent of GDP?. (*D?-D@+"DA- DB-DC!@NormalArial DD3@D0 } s ]DE1 pDF19DEDG1dDFMA@p1 4 3 150 45 0 73 53 0 1 1 1 4 0 1 0 1 1 1 4 0 100 1 1 1 1 4 0 4145.57 30 0 13816530 1 80 3 Equivalent^VariationDHthreeDgraphDataDI gridderData?@DJ xyzTraceDataEDKbarData!?DL5@D @ $DM3@D e[ #DN1 pDO19DNDP1dDOMA@q1 3 3 70 45 0 74 57 0 1 1 1 5 0 100 0 1 1 1 5 0 1 1 1 1 1 14 0 4145.57 30 0 13816530 1 100 3 Equivalent^VariationDQDR?@DSEDT!?DU5@D0@80^DV@Dhchp_00@For a particular degree of competition (s varies between competition and monopoly), what is the effect of a tariff concession by the importers of between 0 and 100 percent, as a percent of GDP?. (*DW-DX+"DY- DZ-D[!@NormalArial D\3@D(ujk`D]1 pD^19D]D_1dD^MA@j1 4 3 150 45 1 73 53 0 0 1 1 4 0 1 0 1 1 1 4 0 100 1 1 1 1 4 0 5 14 0 13816530 0 80 3 Equivalent^VariationD`Da?@DbEDc!?